The community surrounding Bitcoin (BTC tickers down $19,306) is split on the question of whether or not the token’s price will rise dramatically or plummet in the coming year. The predictions of the vast majority of market watchers and the bulk of technical indicators point to a possible bottom between $12,000 and $16,000 in the months ahead. This is in line with a turbulent macroeconomic climate, fluctuating stock prices, rising inflation, data from the Federal Reserve, and (at least according to Elon Musk) the possibility of a recession that might endure until 2024.
On the other hand, influential people, Bitcoin maximalists, and a wide variety of other crypto-obsessed “shills” predict that its price will soar to $80,000 and beyond in the near future.
There is evidence to back up both sides of this argument. It’s possible that they have different time horizons in mind, and that’s one problem. There is a compelling argument to make that the price of BTC will most certainly fall dramatically in the coming months. But there is a possibility that it could rise in the middle to late part of 2023.
Bitcoin price increase in 2023
Bull runs in Bitcoin have traditionally occurred in conjunction with the four-year market cycle, which consists of accumulation (buying), an upswing, distribution (selling), and a decline. In general, we anticipate that the accumulation stage of this process will get underway in 2023; nevertheless, there are others who believe that it might be late until 2024.
Despite this, there is a good chance that valuations will go up in the middle of 2023, and there is evidence to support this hypothesis. When the current bad market of 80 weeks comes to an end, it is possible that we will see the beginning of a bull market in the month of April, as predicted by Kevin Svenson.
Additionally, these price increases encourage over time by the deflationary characteristic of Bitcoin, which manifests in its “halving” events. (As a result of halvings, the reward that gives to miners reduces by one half. The one after that is projected to take place in April of 2024. Long-term investors can profit from Bitcoin’s deflationary tendency, which results in price increase, despite the volatility of the market.
However, you should be skeptical of the hoopla. The market and its influencers are fully aware that greed is a motivating factor. Forecasts indicating that Ether (ETH) stock prices decreased by $1,348. Will skyrocket by a factor of ten by the year 2023 should be taken with a grain of salt. And despite the claims to the contrary, it is quite doubtful that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 or even come close to reaching that price.
Pessimistic predictions put BTC at $3,500
According to the predictions of other analysts, the uptick won’t occur any time soon, not even in 2023. According to the information provided by Gareth Soloway of InTheMoneyStocks, there is a remote possibility that it may even fall to $3,500:
“As Bitcoin ages and regulatory oversight makes users feel safer, there will be a turning point in the cryptocurrency… I think in the near term we’re going to see a little bit of a bounce then a wave down to $12,000 to $13,000, and then I do worry that you’re going to go sub $10,000 to $8,000 maybe even in the worst-case scenario $3,500 very small percentage but that would be the equivalent of Amazon.com collapsing during the dot com era.”
If the price of Bitcoin falls below $12,000, it is possible that miners will no longer make a profit from maintaining the ecosystem. Because of this, transactions will no longer execute. Which is a problem that has the potential to bring the industry to its knees.
Let’s also not forget that there hasn’t been much of a correlation between the pricing of cryptocurrencies. And the widespread use of them, which is a tendency that should be avoided at all costs. The pricing of cryptocurrencies has been a result of the amount of money that investors. Mostly whales and institutions throw at certain assets through derivative contracts and other financial instruments.
Bullish despite changes
Regarding the cycles of the Bitcoin price, there are also further concerns that need to be address. There are many who believe that due to a variety of factors. These cycles of four years may no longer be relevant. In contrast to earlier cycles, the vast majority of Bitcoin is no longer the only cryptocurrency in town.
It is up against a slew of other cryptocurrencies that are superior in most respects. As well as decentralized finance (DeFi), GameFi, nonfungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), Web3 startups, and a variety of investment mechanisms that offer significantly higher returns. Purchasing ETH rather than BTC is necessary in order to participate in Web3 and DeFi activities. Many people believe that the price of bitcoin will increase because more people will become “more interested in DeFi.” This cannot possibly be true.
However, despite this, it is still one of the first coins that institutions will flock toward when they start getting involve in the cryptocurrency world. And its name is a household one. When everything takes into consideration, it is likely that the price of Bitcoin will spike in the middle of 2023; however, we will see a decline in the price in the future months.
An ‘end of the world’ rises in bitcoin prices?
The paradoxical thing about BTC maximalists is that they hold the idea that it would be helpful for Bitcoin and the larger “decentralized” community. If existing systems and the United States dollar (in particular) crashed. They assert that a collapse of governments will make it necessary to implement a new financial system, for which Bitcoin is ideally position.
The core hypothesis of this paper is that there is a linear relationship. Elegantly reversed, between the breakdown of the fiat infrastructure and an increase in the price of bitcoin. Where greater price volatility is equivalent to greater price increases. The decentralized society will “fill the hole” when the global economy collapses.
Naturally, a fall in the oil price relative to the US dollar would cause a sharp increase in the cost of energy. That would also mean that the Bitcoin ecosystem might not be able to sustain itself owing to problems with mining. This is a concern that Ethereum addressed with its September Merge. Which resulted in a reduction of its carbon footprint by 99.99% and eliminated miners from the equation.
In addition to this, a total collapse will signify that all valuations of the USD render worthless. What value would a million dollars’ worth of Bitcoin have if it became impossible to use it to buy a loaf of bread if hyperinflation were to occur? Generally speaking, volatility is Bitcoin’s friend, but only up to a certain point in time.
Maximalists in the Bitcoin community should be careful about what they wish for. If their demands were granted, it would likely be disastrous for the USD and, by extension, Bitcoin.