Bitcoin price prediction model remains ‘amazingly accurate’ with less than 1% error and forecasts record ending in 2021. Bitcoin’s price is now only a few hundred dollars. More than it was three months ago, according to a prediction model.
The prediction was made by PlanB, a pseudonymous Dutch analyst who projected in June. That Bitcoin would be worth $43,000 by the end of September. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading just around $43,150.
PlanB has a large social media following, with over half a million followers on Twitter alone in 2021. With one follower recently describing his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model as “amazingly accurate.”
Bitcoin’s Inbuilt Scarcity
This model assumes that bitcoin’s intrinsic scarcity — only 21 million coins will ever exist. Combined with dwindling supply will cause its value to rise over time.
To estimate when price rallies and peaks might be expected. S2F divides bitcoin’s supply (stock) by its production (flow). Bitcoin’s yearly production halves typically every four years.
In mid-April, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $64,000, but this, according to PlanB. That was not the apex of the current bull run.
The top of the current market cycle is predicted to be well into the six digits. By several versions of his S2F model.
PlanB published his “worst case scenario” for bitcoin after the cryptocurrency’s slump. Between April and July, when it temporarily fell below $30,000.
Bitcoin was below $34,000
Bitcoin price was trading below $34,000 at the time of the projection. While PlanB predicted it would reach $47,000 by the end of August. Before tumbling to $43,000 by the end of September, according to the publication. Both predictions were within a third of a percentage point of being correct.
He expects bitcoin will recover to its all-time high of $64,000 by the end of next month. Then he touched $98,000 by the end of the following month. According to the analyst, it will eventually surpass $100,000 in December. And it will close 2021 at $135,000, which is more than three times today’s price, he forecasts.
In the past, September has been a particularly poor month for bitcoin. Since 2011, price fluctuations have averaged a 7% loss on an annual basis. The most recent decline can be ascribed to a number of issues. Including China’s crypto crackdown and El Salvador’s problematic implementation. In one of its game-changing Bitcoin laws.
Positive and bad news can create havoc in a market that is still in its infancy. And any number of external events can derail it. Even the most precisely calculated prediction models.
“A black swan event, such as a bitcoin prohibition, a Covid escalation. A conflict with China, or anything else, could completely demolish all of these forecasts.” PlanB told The Independent earlier this month.
“The adoption of the ETF, the spread of El Salvador’s success, or favorable legislation. Which might all serve as trigger events for the next leg up. ” And, of course, the utter lack of sellers at one point. A threshold that, in my judgment, will be reached in a few months.”